DR
Dragonlord2026-05-12 10:34Sadly none of those matter because prior to 2022, FIFA required a credit card to put in a ticket application. For Qatar, they did not and you saw a balloon to 23.5 million applications for a very low demand World Cup. With 23.5 applications we calculated that applications had a 2-5% chance of being successful for standard games. I cannot imagine there will be anything less than 10x as many applications. So that would drop to .2 - .5% chance per application or even worse.130M (Mex) + 330M (US) + 40M (CAN) = 500M Now analyze your premise 23.5 x 10x = 235M application Lets make the big assumption that each local applicant applies 4 times. I think its less than that actually (passport restriction). That would mean that 235/4 = 58M or 12% of the entire NA pop. That includes all ages and women. in non crazy football countries like US and CAN Anyway, the 58/4 = 15M locals . I don't think you will have 12% (men + women!) of locals interested in tickets except maybe in MEX. And you have to assume they can afford at least 1 ticket. It will be massive, but not that level of applications. I'd guess 25M tops (3 passports) for 10M applicants 10M is already exceeding the level of interest in all world cups , particularly in football crazy countries AND also geographically convenient like EU , plust it does not include foreigners!!). Now add foreigners. I'm not sure how many visitors to expect, but I think QAR received like 3M, with easy visas. US and CAN are not Qatar. They are also, frankly, far more visited and less interested than an exotic country like JAP, SA, RUS, or QAR. But let's assume you 3x qatar, and assuming that visitors are wealthy, older, and not likely to play app games, so let's take their appts to 3 per foreigner, so 3 x 3 x 3 = 27M additional apps. So that means 27M (foreign) + 25M (local) for 48 games with avg stadium capacity 65,000, then you your chances are 3,120,000 / 52,000,000 = 6%. Naturally, some games will be far less popular, so most of the time you are hitting >10% probability of success or more, which is not to write home about, but that's per app. Doesn't look hellish, except for finals/semis.