211 to 1: World Cup 2026 Elimination Timeline (R)

Oddly enough, I don't believe anyone has started this thread yet and we already have a few eliminations already. 3 teams qualify as hosts: USA, Mexico, Canada, and 208 teams are battling it out for qualification. Although, I'm not sure what to make of Russia atm but I think they are suspended and not yet completely eliminated. We had our first official eliminations today from AFC then I guess: 211. Guam 210. Mongolia 209. Cambodia 208. Sri Lanka 207. Timor-Leste

I'm pretty sure Afghanistan will be eliminated if they lose both games to India. Likewise, Myanmar must get something against Syria in their double header. Pretty sure it's the same for Singapore v China, Chinese Taipei v Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan needs something against Jordan, Nepal v Bahrain, and if I'm not mistaken two groups could be done in dusted with 2 games to spare. Should Hong Kong lose twice v Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan do the same v Iran, then the top 2 would be out of sight, and it's a similar situation for Indonesia v Vietnam and Philippines v Iraq. Things are a bit more complicated in group I with only one point between the bottom three. I don't think anyone can be eliminated from that group. So basically in one weeks time, we could lose some if not all of Afghanistan, Myanmar, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Pakistan, Nepal, Hong Kong, Turkmenistan, Indonesia, and/or Philippines. Much improved Indonesia probably have the best chance to live on and fight another day vs a declining Vietnam, but I think the majority of these other teams will be eliminated unfortunately before the last group games in June. That's what I think it looks like atm, however, correct me if I'm wrong....

Group I: In the unlikely event that Lebanon wins hosting Australia, .I would just point out that Lebanon is hosting Australia in Canberra and will probably have less supporters there than they did in Sydney as there is a fairly large Lebanese expat community in the suburbs close to last nights venue. It will also be the first time I've been to an "away" qualifier.

FIFA announced yesterday that the Korea DPR-Japan game won't be re-arranged and a decision will be taken in due course: probably Korea DPR loses it 3-0.

Iran won 1-0 at Turkmenistan. That got Iran to 10 points, left Turkmenistan at 1, and today's earlier game got Uzbekistan to 10 points and left Hong Kong with 1. AFC's remaining five games are at the same time. Pakistan will be eliminated if they lose at Jordan. Nepal will be eliminated if they lose at Bahrain, or if they draw at Bahrain and Yemen wins hosting United Arab Emirates.

206. Macau

Wikipedia calls the game canceled. I have seen teams drop out during a group and have their results removed so the remaining teams have played the same amount of games. I do not know if I ever saw a group end with two teams having played six games and two teams having played five games. To advance, Korea DPR needs at least as many points from five games as Syria gets from six games, albeit there is a good chance Korea DPR would have lost hosting Japan, so Korea DPR may not cost themselves points by not playing. If Korea DPR wins hosting Syria and Myanmar, and Syria does anything other than win their other two games including at Japan, Korea DPR will advance. Here are tomorrow's 17 AFC games in chronological order to know what order teams could be eliminated in: 1. Lebanon vs. Australia 2. Bangladesh vs. Palestine 3. Philippines vs. Iraq 4. and 5. China vs. Singpore and Vietnam vs. Indonesia at the same time 6. Thailand vs. Korea Republic 7. India vs. Afghanistan 8. and 9. Kyrgyz Republic vs. Chinese Taipei and Malaysia vs. Oman at the same time 10. Uzbekistan vs. Hong Kong 11. and 12. Tajikistan vs. Saudi Arabia and Turkmenistan vs. Iran at the same time 13. through 17. Bahrain vs. Nepal, Jordan vs. Pakistan, Kuwait vs. Qatar, Syria vs. Myanmar, and Yemen vs. United Arab Emirates will be five games at the same time Starting at the same time as the last AFC games, British Virgin Islands vs. U.S. Virgin Islands will eliminate one of them, and the first leg is 1-1. Concacaf's second WCQ tomorrow and the last WCQ this month will be Turks and Caicos Islands vs. Anguilla, and the first leg was 0-0.

I am assuming that CAF's comparison of second place teams will exclude games against sixth place teams like UEFA did when they had groups of five or six, but that has not been decided yet. If teams withdraw, it is better to withdraw before playing any games. In World Cup 2022 qualifying, North Korea withdrew after playing 5 games, which were taken out of the standings for the other teams.

Going tomorrow to see Qatar v Afghanistan. Kind of surprised the game is going ahead as apparently Afghanistan had 18 players boycott, but I guess they found replacements or they backed out of it? I kept watching to see if Afghanistan would be added to this list, but looks like they are going ahead anyway... Afghanistan players boycott World Cup qualifier with Qatar | OneFootball

Group A: Qatar 3-0 Kuwait, and Afghanistan 0-0 India Qatar 9, India 4, Kuwait 3, and Afghanistan 1 No team will be eliminated on March 26. Afghanistan will survive until June. If they lose in India, they will trail India by 6 points and at least 11 goal differential, so they would be realistically eliminated, but not mathematically eliminated. Group B: Japan 1-0 Korea DPR (North Korea), and Myanmar 1-1 Syria Japan 9, Syria 4, Korea DPR 3, and Myanmar 1 No team will be eliminated on March 26. The point distribution is the same as in Group A, and Myanmar will be realistically but not mathematically eliminated if they lose to Syria, who has to play their home game in Saudi Arabia. Group C: Korea Republic (South Korea) 1-1 Thailand, and Singapore 2-2 China Korea Republic 7, Thailand 4 (+1), China 4 (-2), and Singapore 1 Singapore will be eliminated with a loss because they would be at least 6 points behind Korea Republic, 6 points behind China, and Korea Republic and China cannot lose their last two games because they play each other. Group D: Chinese Taipei 0-2 Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan), and Oman 2-0 Malaysia Oman 6 (+4), Kyrgyz Republic 6 (+2), Malaysia 6 (+0), and Chinese Taipei 0 Chinese Taipei will be eliminated with a loss, which would make them more than 6 points behind Kyrgyz Republic and at least one of Oman or Malaysia. Chinese Taipei will be eliminated with a draw and the other game having a winner. In that case, they would be 8 points behind Oman or Malaysia, 6 points behind Kyrgyz Republic, and Kyrgyz Republic losing twice to let Chinese Taipei tie them would mean than Kyrgyz Republic lost to the loser of Malaysia vs. Oman. If both games are draws, Chinese Taipei remains alive. If that happens and Chinese Taipei and Kyrgyz Republic win their last two games, it would make a 13-7-7-7 distribution, with Chinese Taipei alive to win a three-way tie for second. Group E: Hong Kong 0-2 Uzbekistan, and Iran 5-0 Turkmenistan Iran 7 (+9), Uzbekistan 7 (+4), Hong Kong 1 (-6), and Turkmenistan 1 (-7) Turkmenistan will be eliminated if they lose and Uzbekistan does not lose hosting Hong Kong. That would make Turkmenistan 9 points behind Iran, and 7 or 9 points behind Uzbekistan. Hong Kong will be eliminated if the lose and Iran does not lose at Turkmenistan. That would make Hong Kong 9 points behind Uzbekistan, and 7 or 9 points behind Iran. In the likely event that Iran and Uzbekistan win, they advance, and Hong Kong and Turkmenistan are eliminated. Group F: Indonesia 1-0 Vietnam, and Iraq 1-0 Philippines Iraq 9, Indonesia 4, Vietnam 3, and Philippines 1 No team can be eliminated. If Philippines draws or loses, they will be unable to catch Iraq, but they cannot be more than 6 points behind Indonesia and Vietnam, who will be done playing each other. Group G: Pakistan 0-3 Jordan, and Saudi Arabia 1-0 Tajikistan Saudi Arabia 7, Tajikistan 4 (+4), Jordan 4 (+1), and Pakistan 0 Pakistan will be el...

I tried to do elimination scenarios in AFC, but it was complicated. The top two in each group advance. I may do scenarios after tomorrow's games. Teams play the same opponent on Matchday 3 and Matchday 4 this month. For now, here are the standings and schedule: Group A: Qatar 6, Kuwait 3, India 3, and Afghanistan 0 Qatar plays Kuwait, and India plays Afghanistan. Group B: Japan 6, Korea DPR (North Korea) 3, Syria 3, and Myanmar 0 Japan plays Korea DPR, and Syria plays Myanmar. Group C: Korea Republic (South Korea) 6, Thailand 3, China 3, and Singapore 0 Korea Republic plays Thailand, and China plays Singapore. Group D: Malaysia 6, Oman 3, Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) 3, and Chinese Taipei 0 Malaysia plays Oman, and Kyrgyz Republic plays Chinese Taipei. Group E: Iran 4, Uzbekistan 4, Turkmenistan 1, and Hong Kong 1 Iran plays Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan plays Hong Kong. Group F: Iraq 6, Vietnam 3, Philippines 1, and Indonesia 1 Iraq plays Philippines, and Vietnam plays Indonesia. Group G: Saudi Arabia 6, Tajikistan 4, Jordan 1, and Pakistan 0 Saudi Arabia plays Tajikistan, and Jordan plays Pakistan. Group H: United Arab Emirates 6, Bahrain 3, Yemen 3, and Nepal 0 United Arab Emirates plays Yemen, and Bahrain plays Nepal. Group I: Australia 6, Lebanon 2, Palestine 1, and Bangladesh 1 Australia plays Lebanon, and Palestine plays Bangladesh. The first four groups have the same distribution, and have first playing second and third playing fourth. Groups E through I are five groups that have different point distributions. Tomorrow's first game is Pakistan vs. Jordan at 10:00 A.M. CET and 5:00 A.M. USA Eastern. Other than a half hour break, there will be at least one game continuously for twelve hours

201. Eritrea https://www.cafonline.com/news/statement-on-fifa-world-cup-2026-preliminary-competition/I was actually in Eritrea last month and managed to pull the driver over to take the requisite photo of the Cicero Stadium. Apparently the stadium is not up to standards to host CAF world cup qualifying matches and Eritrea seems to be kind of the "Cuba of Africa" in the sense that many of the players don't go back and seek asylum when they play abroad.... Eritrea withdrew from 2026 World Cup qualifying ‘over fears players will flee’ | Football | The Guardian

D'oh good point... Maldives match was definitely before the Bhutan / Laos game which was played simultaneously, Bhutan's ending minutes before Laos though.... 211. Guam 210. Mongolia 209. Cambodia 208. Sri Lanka 207. Timor-Leste 206. Macau 205. Maldives 204. Bhutan 203. Laos 202. Brunei201. Eritrea https://www.cafonline.com/news/statement-on-fifa-world-cup-2026-preliminary-competition/

199 + 198 - Hong Kong & Turkmenistan

Group A: Qatar 3-0 Kuwait, and Afghanistan 0-0 India Qatar 9, India 4, Kuwait 3, and Afghanistan 1 No team will be eliminated on March 26. Afghanistan will survive until June. If they lose in India, they will trail India by 6 points and at least 11 goal differential, so they would be realistically eliminated, but not mathematically eliminated. Group B: Japan 1-0 Korea DPR (North Korea), and Myanmar 1-1 Syria Japan 9, Syria 4, Korea DPR 3, and Myanmar 1 No team will be eliminated on March 26. The point distribution is the same as in Group A, and Myanmar will be realistically but not mathematically eliminated if they lose to Syria, who has to play their home game in Saudi Arabia. Group C: Korea Republic (South Korea) 1-1 Thailand, and Singapore 2-2 China Korea Republic 7, Thailand 4 (+1), China 4 (-2), and Singapore 1 Singapore will be eliminated with a loss because they would be at least 6 points behind Korea Republic, 6 points behind China, and Korea Republic and China cannot lose their last two games because they play each other. Group D: Chinese Taipei 0-2 Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan), and Oman 2-0 Malaysia Oman 6 (+4), Kyrgyz Republic 6 (+2), Malaysia 6 (+0), and Chinese Taipei 0 Chinese Taipei will be eliminated with a loss, which would make them more than 6 points behind Kyrgyz Republic and at least one of Oman or Malaysia. Chinese Taipei will be eliminated with a draw and the other game having a winner. In that case, they would be 8 points behind Oman or Malaysia, 6 points behind Kyrgyz Republic, and Kyrgyz Republic losing twice to let Chinese Taipei tie them would mean than Kyrgyz Republic lost to the loser of Malaysia vs. Oman. If both games are draws, Chinese Taipei remains alive. If that happens and Chinese Taipei and Kyrgyz Republic win their last two games, it would make a 13-7-7-7 distribution, with Chinese Taipei alive to win a three-way tie for second. Group E: Hong Kong 0-2 Uzbekistan, and Iran 5-0 Turkmenistan Iran 7 (+9), Uzbekistan 7 (+4), Hong Kong 1 (-6), and Turkmenistan 1 (-7) Turkmenistan will be eliminated if they lose and Uzbekistan does not lose hosting Hong Kong. That would make Turkmenistan 9 points behind Iran, and 7 or 9 points behind Uzbekistan. Hong Kong will be eliminated if the lose and Iran does not lose at Turkmenistan. That would make Hong Kong 9 points behind Uzbekistan, and 7 or 9 points behind Iran. In the likely event that Iran and Uzbekistan win, they advance, and Hong Kong and Turkmenistan are eliminated. Group F: Indonesia 1-0 Vietnam, and Iraq 1-0 Philippines Iraq 9, Indonesia 4, Vietnam 3, and Philippines 1 No team can be eliminated. If Philippines draws or loses, they will be unable to catch Iraq, but they cannot be more than 6 points behind Indonesia and Vietnam, who will be done playing each other. Group G: Pakistan 0-3 Jordan, and Saudi Arabia 1-0 Tajikistan Saudi Arabia 7, Tajikistan 4 (+4), Jordan 4 (+1), and Pakistan 0 Pakistan will be eliminated with a loss because they will...

Korea DPR, which has not hosted since 2019, will not host Japan. The game is postponed, and the teams will probably have to play three games in June. That guarantees that Myanmar will not be eliminated on Tuesday.