Opening Match and Final Referee Prediction

With the European season coming to a close, it's time to focus on the World Cup. I thought I would kick start the World Cup refereeing sub-forum with all of us cosplaying as FIFA fantasy referee assignor. I think the most interesting discussions we have on this forum is during tournament and it produces really great discussions and debates. Who do you all think will officiate the opening match and who will officiate the Final? I've been horrifically wrong at this since I joined the forum. My order is something like this for the Final. 1. Oliver 2. Turpin/Letexier 3. Brazilian referee 4. Faghani (will the fact he is refereeing under the Australian flag, but from Iran matter?) 5. Elfath/Ramos If it is a European referee, I think it's either Oliver or Turpin/Letexier. I can't see anyone else from Europe getting it. The European field is maybe the weakest since I've been paying attention to this (in terms of experience and achievements). I would have Elfath 1 or 2 in any other World Cup, but I think being a host nation World Cup referee means you do have a ceiling especially if you're co-hosting. The US can't get everything. I think there is something truth to that. What's the furthest a host nation referee has gone in a World Cup the last 40 years? Round of 16 match? If it is a South American, I think it will go to whoever is the best Brazilian refefee. It feels like Brazil is due to officiate the World Cup Final.

Added a poll for the opener.

I was gonna mention the team performance as a big reason why no host nation referee has not done anything in a long time. In fact, the host nation referee has only officiated one knockout game this century and that was Ricci. Collina and Poll both mentioned in their book that the Japanese referee was actually pretty good in '02, but he couldn't stick around for the knock out stages because the South Korean referee was poor. Whether he was viable at all for a knockout game is probably not likely. No AFC referee did a knockout match in that World Cup. Saad Mane was the only realistic AFC referee for a knockout game and they just gave him the third place game. In '06, Merk was terrible in the group stages so he was out of a knockout game. In '10, the South African referee was only there because the host nation had to have a referee so he was never viable for a knockout match as you said. In '14 Ricci was good enough, but Brazil went too far. In '18, Karaseav was probably on the border of getting a knockout game. I think he could have gotten to a World Cup without being a host referee. In '22, not viable as you said.

In '06, Merk was terrible in the group stages so he was out of a knockout game.But this is an important example, no? If you asked the question in May 2006, you'd have had Merk as a nailed-on candidate for the final if Germany didn't make the semis. Germany did, so his performance became irrelevant; the fact that he had a bad group stage would have played himself out of contention anyway, but he was in contention pre-tournament. In '14 Ricci was good enough, but Brazil went too far.Ricci was good enough in 2018 as a returnee and I think a lot of us had him as a serious candidate. I'm not sure anyone saw him as good enough or a serious contender heading into 2014. I think Abatti is different this year, because of what he's already done at the FIFA level. In '18, Karaseav was probably on the border of getting a knockout game. I think he could have gotten to a World Cup without being a host referee.The irony for Karasev is that he was definitely a reach for 2018 if Russia didn't host but would have been a nailed-on candidate for 2022 if he was viable. So he went to one tournament because of politics and missed another because of it.

One other point, we always bring up "dark horse" candidates to officiate the Final and there is almost never really a surprise (at least this century) and none of them come through. It pretty much goes to the most famous and consensus best or top three referee in the world. 2002: Collina 2006: Elizondo 2010: Webb 2014: Rizzoli 2018: Pitana 2022: Marciniak I can't speak on Elizondo, but I would be imagine he came in decorated to that World Cup and should have been one of the favorites. Marciniak is probably the closest to being a dark horse and come out of no where so to speak. He didn't have the pelts on the wall so to speak in terms of assignments like a Pitana, Rizzoli, or Webb did going into the World Cup. He went to one World Cup and one Euro prior and didn't do anything special. He goes to Qatar and seems to have been handpicked from the beginning to get the Final.

I think it is a mistake to underestimate how much some people on the referee commitee like Ramos. What to Americans looks like late whistles, arbitrary foul recognition, and chaotic management, to others looks like disciplined self-control, and unwillingness to get baited. Mexico is a "host nation," but a host nation that begins feeling slighted already. So if you are looking for a dark horse candidate...I don't think I underestimate his standing, though I'd put it more toward politics than any idea that, say, Collina thinks Ramos is world class. My line of thinking on Ramos is that he's essentially been found out. Is he serviceable and would FIFA put him on a tough game to maintain confederational neutrality and/or to reward Mexico? Sure. Almost zero doubt he has a KO match in at least the R16. But will they risk him on the final? No, I just don't see it. I think smart people know what could happen. I kind of put Ramos in a Kovacs category in this regard. For what it's worth, I also think Faghani has been "found out," too. I know I've been a bit of a contrarian in never really rating him because of some things I saw before WC18, but I do think the cracks have now shown in both Qatar and at the CWC. I tend to think the CWC appointment was partially a way of clearing the deck and putting a little less pressure on the idea that it was "his turn" in 2026. I could be very wrong, though

What's the furthest a host nation referee has gone in a World Cup the last 40 years? Round of 16 match?Yes, but... part of that has to do with the fact that host nation referees are either often poor relatively speaking OR come from a big nation that makes the late stages. Take 40 years... 1986, Mexican referee actually does the semifinal. 1990, Italy is in the semifinal so referee can't be there. 1994, American is filler 1998, France is in Final 2002, South Korea is in semifinal and it's not like S. Korea or Japan was going to give us the final referee 2006, Germany is in semi 2010, South Africa wasn't viable 2014, Brazil is in semi 2018, Russia isn't viable 2022, Qatar isn't viable Elfath, as a returning referee from a team that is not favorite to make a semifinal, is probably the first referee in that 40 year span who has a real chance. For what it's worth, on the merits, I really like Abatti as the dark horse for the final. I also agree Brazil seems due and if Brazil doesn't perform on the field, I would guess either Sampaio or Abatti is at least a semifinal referee. Eflath has to be in consideration unless he falls apart. Faghani has to be in discussion, though I don't think he's good enough. And then, yes, Letexier, Turpin and Oliver. I agree that the candidate pool doesn't start much bigger than that. It simply cannot be Ramos. I hope. The problem of course is that you're relying on two referees who have showed some issues (Elfath and Faghani) that could get them in trouble alongside four or five referees from countries that could be in the semifinals. So the pool might have to naturally expand. I think you need to watch any referee who is returning to see if they catch fire. Valenzuela and Makkelie are two names that sort of stick out as dark horses. I suppose Vincic and Kovacs should have their names there, too, but I don't trust them and, ultimately, I don't think Collina would either. It's a long tournament. As always, performance will matter.

Not to officiate the Final, but maybe go further than a Round of 16 match.Right. But once you know Brazil is likely to go deep, options are limited. Looking back... sure, you could save him for the match that ended up being Netherlands v Costa Rica, but that's basically it. He was in a "use him or lose him" situation and that's even assuming people thought he was good enough for a QF.

I'm so excited.You might be the only one as I am dreading a catastrophe...

If Marciniak gets the opener, would he become the first referee to referee chronologically-consecutive World Cup matches?Felix Brych in Euro 2020 achieved this (last QF and first SF). In terms of WCs: Irmatov in 2010, Michel in 2006, Torres Cadena in 1994 and Lanese in 1990 could also have done, had some of their match timings been different! (and who could forget Kim Young-joo handling both match 12 and match 13 in the 1999 Confederations Cup, of course...) Edit: I just remembered this from Copa America 2007; look at the dates!(!!)

If Marciniak gets the opener, would he become the first referee to referee chronologically-consecutive World Cup matches?Not sure about modern era but my presumption was no if you look at early tournaments. Quick look at 1934 shows the same Italian referee did the last numerical R16 and first QF. All R16s allegedly kicked off at same time so a bit of an asterisk there.

It pretty much goes to the most famous and consensus best or top three referee in the world.And I think hindsight is coloring this some. Or maybe a lot. Collina, sure, of course. Pitana, same to a large extent. Elizondo had been around, yes. He had even sent Beckham off at the 2000 CWC. But my recollection is he was just the best Argentinian at the right time and then had a good tournament. Plus the semis were four UEFA teams, so it defaulted to South America. Even then, Archundia was there. Ruiz and Larrionda. Plus the UEFA names. There's no way you can say Elizondo walked into that tournament as a top 3 world referee 20 years ago on reputation. FIFA obviously saw something in him as they gave him the opener, but was he a big name? No. Webb, again, he just had the CL Final. But who was Webb internationally in, say, 2009? Archundia was back again then. CONMEBOL was even stronger. And Rosetti and Busacca, at minimum, would have walked into the tournament on higher footing from within UEFA for the overall body of work. Same arguments again on 2014. Rizzoli in hindsight, fine. But I think a lot of us thought that was a stretch. Brych couldn't get it, of course. But then Kuipers and Cakir. Mazic played himself out but Eriksson was, at one point, the seeming favorite. I don't look at that roster and see Rizzoli screaming top 3 world referee. Marciniak is an interesting case because, first, he was on fire but also Collina's fondness for him was well-established. You could start to see the appointment unfolding pretty clearly. He probably should have been a top 3 household name for consideration, but like you say, he wasn't.

I'm willing to concede your point on 2006 as I can't comment on Elizondo as I just have no perspective on South American refereeing at that time, but I do think you sometimes put too much weight on returning referees (i.e. Ruiz). Just because you go to a tournament and do okay and come back doesn't make you a favorite. Even at the FIFA they sometimes need bodies that have "experience." Webb is the one where the appointment elevated him to the status instead of him already being there. But he was the best referee in the best/most popular league in the world and just did the CL Final. I think you're wrong on 2014. Rizzoli was probably the best referee in the world at that time and he had the accolades to back it up and we should have actually seen the Final appointment coming after he got Spain vs. Netherlands and did well on it. He had the resume that Cakir, Kuipers, and Eriksson just didn't have. Did Bayern vs. United quarterfinal in 2010. Got the UEFA Cup Final in 2010. Was excellent in Arsenal vs. Barcelona 2011. Busacca did the second leg and we know how that went. Went to Euro 2012 and might have gotten the Final if Italy didn't make it. Got the 2013 CL Final and was excellent in the second leg of Atletico vs. Chelsea CL semi-final.

In '14 Ricci was good enough, but Brazil went too far.Ricci remained amongst the last candidates retained by FIFA and was much, much closer to getting that final tOh, and I would say Marciniak is a leading candidate for the opener, right? I think I predicted Turpin in 2022 and he also would be a sensible candidate. Faghani seems like the other.I was quite sure on Marciniak but with his fitness issues, I could imagine he will start later in the tournament and switch Mexico-S.Africa to Letexier (and Oliver for Brazil-Morocco). Edit: Faghani and, to a much lesser extent, Turpin would not be the best style to present as the first image/baseline for the tournament in my view ('the referees are going to let a lot go').

I think it is a mistake to underestimate how much some people on the referee commitee like Ramos. What to Americans looks like late whistles, arbitrary foul recognition, and chaotic management, to others looks like disciplined self-control, and unwillingness to get baited. Mexico is a "host nation," but a host nation that begins feeling slighted already. So if you are looking for a dark horse candidate... Also I think CONCACAF is the only association not to have two members of the committee (somehow they traded one spot so that there could be 4 from europe). So again, I'm not saying Ramos would be the favorite or anything, but in a reverse twist of logic, that actually opens up a path for him as the outsider, but an outsider that has great relationships with people like Aguilar, and Gomes. EDIT to add: apparently CAF has only one member too. It doesn't hurt Ramos that the CAF member likes him, and the two have been compared to each other in style.

Will they announce the first two crews today or tomorrow? For all the flaws with this tournament, and especially the US's role as co-host, I am so excited. The World Cup is awesome. I am so excited. I'll say it again. I'm so excited.