World Cup 2026 and the Battle between Confederations

I took inspiration of a similar thread for the 2022 World Cup, how do you see each one of the confederations faring at the world cup? Here’s a list of all the matches, organized by confederation and matchday. Matchday 3 is always the hardest to predict, since some teams rest key players after securing qualification, which often leads to surprising results like France, Brazil, and Portugal all losing with their B squads in Matchday 3 in Qatar 2022 after clinching advancement in just two games. Also with third places advancing some teams will definitely going to be happy with their results after two matchdays and not even bother to play well in the third match. At Euro 2024, for example, every team in Group F except Ukraine (Belgium, Slovakia, and Romania) was happy with their position by matchday 3 and the way they played in the last match, it could practically have been an email. Another important factor to consider is that the first tiebreaker in this World Cup will be H2H results, rather than goal difference as in previous tournaments. This makes it easier for teams to secure first place or qualification after fewer matches, since any team you defeat is essentially guaranteed to finish below you as long as there is not a triple tie. AFC vs UEFA 14 matches in total (M1: 6, M2: 4, M3: 4) South Korea vs Czequia (M1) Qatar vs Switzerland (M1) Australia vs Turkey (M1) Netherlands vs Japan (M1) Iraq vs Norway (M1) Austria vs Jordan (M1) Spain vs Saudi Arabia (M2) Belgium vs Iran (M2) France vs Iraq (M2) Portugal vs Uzbekistan (M2) Bosnia vs Qatar (M3) Japan vs Sweden (M3) Tunisia vs Netherlands (M3) Egypt vs Iran (M3) AFC vs CAF 6 matches in total (M1: 0, M2: 2, M3: 4) Tunisia vs Japan (M2) Jordan vs Algeria (M2) South Africa vs South Korea (M3) Senegal vs Iraq (M3) Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia (M3) DR Congo vs Uzbekistan (M3) AFC vs CONCACAF 3 matches in total (M1: 0, M2: 3, M3: 0) Canada vs Qatar (M2) Mexico vs South Korea (M2) USA vs Australia (M2) AFC vs CONMEBOL 4 matches in total (M1: 2, M2: 0, M3: 2) Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay (M1) Uzbekistan vs Colombia (M1) Jordan vs Argentina (M3) Paraguay vs Australia (M3) CAF vs UEFA 12 matches in total (M1: 5, M2: 5, M3: 2) Sweden vs Tunisia (M1) Spain vs Cape Verde (M1) Belgium vs Egypt (M1) France vs Senegal (M1) Portugal vs DR Congo (M1) Czequia vs South Africa (M2) Scotland vs Morocco (M2) Germany vs Ivory Coast (M2) Norway vs Senegal (M2) England vs Ghana (M2) Croatia vs Ghana (M3) Algeria vs Austria (M3) CAF vs CONCACAF 4 matches in total (M1: 2, M2: 0, M3: 2) Mexico vs South Africa (M1) Ghana vs Panama (M1) Morocco vs Haiti (M3) Curaçao vs Ivory Coast (M3) CAF vs CONMEBOL 5 matches in total (M1: 3, M2: 2, M3: 0) Brazil vs Morocco (M1) Ivory Coast vs Ecuador (M1) Argentina vs Algeria (M1) Uruguay vs Cape Verde (M2) Colombia vs DR Congo (M2) CONCACAF vs UEFA 8 matches in total (M1: 3, M2: 1, M3: 4) Canada vs Bosnia (M1) Haiti vs Scotland (M1) Germany vs Curaçao (M1) Panama vs Croatia (M2) Sw...

Nice work, I like the idea! There is a small mistake however, Egypt vs Iran (bottom of your AFC vs UEFA) should obviously go to AFC vs CAF. I will think about it later today to give my predictions

My comments on the AFC contingent, which I posted in another thread: I am not much into football these days, for obvious reasons. Don't even know if my team will end up playing at the World Cup. But the comments here about Iran's team by certain other posters seem overly influenced by an Iranian diaspora that has its own agendas. Under normal circumstances, Iran should be able to get something like 4 points in this group, although I am not as dismissive of New Zealand as some others here nor do I share some of the comments here about Egypt. But like WC22 (except in spades times 100), these are not normal circumstances for Iran and I won't predict anything when it comes to how (or if at all) Iran will play. The Uzbeks actually can have a surprisingly good team. To me, they are actually better individually than the sum of their parts. Individually, I would say that right now they have better players than Iran. But when they face Iran under normal circumstances (e.g., no red cards etc) overall Iran is still the better more dominant team. If their level of play is brought up to the level of talent they possess (other than their goalie, I rate most of their field players rather highly) they can surprise many teams. They have a tough group but they won't go down without a fight. They might even surprise. The S. Koreans are ridiculous. While Americans were impressed by how they beat the US, they have not been nearly as good as you would imagine they should be on paper when things (such as the bounce of the ball and mistakes on both ends) have not perfectly lined up for them. Their overall results are pretty meh. I would have expected more from them as well. But they will be in contention to advance from their group for sure although they can easily end up doing poorly as well. Saudi Arabia are an even bigger enigma, given how much they have spent and how little they have to show for it. I am not going to comment on them as I am biased against the Saudi team, but good riddance... Qatar's fortunes ride almost entirely on which version of Akram Afif shows up? When Akram Afif is on fire and playing to his best (as was the case during the Asian Cup), they can actually pose problems for some of their opponents. Otherwise, they are hopeless despite Bosnia being not any better than them. Iraq are semi-solid but not exciting at all. Arnold has shown himself a decent coach and they might be able to grind some result against one of their opponents. But as long as they don't get embarrassed, anything more from them in their tough group would be a plus. Jordan should not be underestimated. They are pretty good and their 2nd place in the last Asian Cup wasn't entirely coincidental. But I think they have lost one of their best players (not sure?) and for a side that may not be all that deep in top level talent, that might prove consequential. They definitely will play tough against Algeria and Austria and maybe even give Argentina some trouble, but I wouldn't b...

Ok so I see as very likely outcomes: AFC vs UEFA - I can think of 7 matches out of 13 where the UEFA nation should win (Switzerland, Norway, Spain, France, Portugal, Bosnia and the Netherlands), the only one in Matchday 3 being Netherlands vs Tunisia. Given that they face Japan and Sweden before, I expect them to still give it all in that last match and win. AFC vs CAF - Only Senegal beating Irak seems super likely, the rest is unpredictable to me. AFC vs CONCACAF - Canada should win, I’d favour Mexico and USA to also win their games but not as confident as for Canada. AFC vs CONMEBOL - I can see at the very least 2 CONMEBOL wins, Uruguay and Argentina, most likely a third with Colombia but I’m weary of Uzbekistan. CAF vs UEFA - I see Spain, Portugal and England winning, the rest I would not bet my money on anyone to make it for sure. CAF vs CONCACAF - Morocco and Ivory Coast should win. CAF vs CONMEBOL - Argentina vs Algeria is the match where I’d see the biggest favourite in Argentina, but even that one I cannot say, Algerians are definitely no pushovers. CONCACAF vs UEFA - Scotland, Germany, Croatia, England should win. CONCACAF vs CONMEBOL - Brazil and Ecuador should win. CONMEBOL vs UEFA - Lots of M3 matches that could be unpredictable, else apart from Brazil beating Scotland, I cannot see any match where the favourite would win easily any day of the week. UEFA vs UEFA - No easy winner here. AFC vs OFC - Same here. CAF vs OFC - Same again. UEFA vs OFC - There, I still see Belgium winning. So overall, I have 15 almost guaranteed UEFA wins over 40 matches against other confederations , 5 CONMEBOL wins over 18 matches, 3 CAF wins over 28 matches, 1 CONCACAF win over 18 matches, and no easy wins for AFC and OFC over respectively 28 and 3 matches. Now these don’t totally reflect how I think each confederation will do, I see AFC, CAF and CONCACAF (well the hosts) getting quite a few more wins, and I expect UEFA teams not to dominate this World Cup, especially in the latter stages. I’d have maybe half the teams being European in the quarterfinals as my side prediction